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bendigo

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23/08/14

11:32

Post #: 13861293
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Originally posted by cafa ↑

To some extent it could be consider very cheap, or overpriced.

Market is pricing in a continued 20/25% growth. This may be achievable and past experience says it is.

There is competition in this space and market may get a surprise if one of the majors decides to market their own version of Sirsphere. If Bayer announced next week that they had an equivalent product and go aggressively marketed it then there would be some serious pressure on margins. As SRX sales ramp up the market becomes more attractive to the larger companies, especially if the trial results are 'good to very good' and they can see a much larger market. Stay vigilant to the nano companies who are in this space and may be able to claim equivalency as they would probably sell to a major as soon as they get CE / FDA approval.

Ignoring the risk above, we then need to take a view of the numbers and growth rate on various trial results. Will growth be 30%, 50% per year for a few year or even higher. You can do the numbers and estimate the SP at those times, and then discount back to a present day value. If you think the trial results will be in the very good area, and estimate somewhere around the 50% growth then the SP, IMO, is an absolute steal.

Take the blue shy vision discounted back to current SP and then consider the risk profile and whether you will get any notice of competition or if it could be a black swan event. What price if Bayer announced tomorrow they had an FDA equivalency approval for a like for like bead?

IMO, it fits my risk profile but do not ignore the risks. Sentiment would be strong buy, but I'm very top heavy already so I post hold which is what I'm doing.

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Excellent post cafe.
Says it all.....with nothing needed to be added.

SRX Price at posting: $20.91 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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