IMO concern about supermarket take over of chemists is exaggerated: Chemist chains are now the norm, so they have already implemented the supply chain benefits that supermarkets have - but much more specialised. The latter means they can squeeze a lot more value as they do not have the broad spectrum of goods supermarkets have to stock and manage. Sure, as a loss leader, supermarkets are a danger, but can they really take on an industry that is so ubiquitous around the country? Yes, I know that the same could've been said about liquor stores, petrol stations, and even butchers. But the fact remains, every suburb and small town has a chemist - cant say the same about a Coles and Woolies.
As you will know, Coles and Woolies moves to "home brand" as quickly as possible. Unpatented medicines will be their preferred area of operation, as it allows them to control cost/profit margin. Independent chemists will still rule the patented medicine sector as the supermarkets can only play with the service portion of supply, not the cost of the goods.
I got into API because we have an aging population. In general, old people will only go to a shopping centre with a big 2 supermarket when they have to. Whilst that might be regularly, its not as regularly and often as they need to go to a chemist for their daily medicines. There still plenty of growth potential in API for these reasons.
IMHO!
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