and everyone is forgetting ARI not only paid off $407M worth of debt,in the last 6 months but added to its cash in the bank,by around $250m with it now sitting at around $650m at the end of June,while miners with similar tonnages,reported far lower earnings and cash income from their similar IO sales.Look to the prior 6 monthly accounts and also see the significant drop in interest bearing liabilities as well as statutory debt reduction,during that period.
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Fortunately for ARI,one suspects much of the LG IO stockpiles increasingly used for blending and benificiation,beyond currently produced mining now, were mined over the last 40yrs and have little cash cost value in today's dollars.20-30m tons,lying about isn't to be sneezed at and is ARI's Little Golden Egg.Currently estimate as around 1MT of the 2MT low grade opal blended yearly(likely to rise) and also the major source of the 4mt that gets beneficiated into 2mt HG ore.As they get more HG ore such as the 400kt magnetite to mix in this use will increase.
Not much point in keeping high cash levels and $2bn in unused facilities,unless you plan to take advantage of them for another BUY or a big development.That $1.8bn would be costing at least 1-1.5% in facility costs per year ($30m).
Capital expenditure is set to fall,with the exception of Iron Knob,which has a 4yr payback at $93 Platts for 62%FE,at around 2MTPA mining rate,(8MT)which means this ore must be about the lowest cost in Australia,once its flowing with 10MT left.
Once its paid back in 2019 it should reach its High grade ore at the base of the old pit for another 2-3yrs on the current mine plan.
Grades as high as 67-69%FE.have historically been mined there,I believe,when you wouldn't use anything below that grade as well.
The resource i believe was 400mtrs deep,but can't work out how much has already been mined,besides 170MT has been sold from the site to date.
ARI's mining QTRLY all-up Cash Cost has dropped around $16m as well on a QTRLY basis over the last 12 months,with more to come,so I suspect you could knock $4 plus off those quoted breakeven figures for ARI,in your graph,IMHO before they start to reduce them even further in the QTRs ahead.
Speculation about Cliffs draws a comparison with AGO,but with a rail allocation and at current IO prices worthless as a loss maker,much like those divisions that ARI has deemed NON-CORE and sold down to be rid of the associated risks.
I imagine ARI has further plans,either refining what they have growing,while taking costs out,such as within mining consumables,or turning Whyalla into a proper trading port,with even more loading infrastructure.Maybe even dredge the channels deeper to get those capes closer.
There is always the potential of ARI adding another division,much as it did with mining consumables.
The advantage of holding cash,is not lost if ALL your other divisions like ARI's are, also throwing cash off as well,even if their NPAT is marginal in the current economic environment.
DYOR+DYODD What will ARI do next? Maybe a on market share buy back as well as a more efficient way passing of value to shareholders rather than larger franking free dividends,much as CSL does.
ARI Price at posting:
78.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
