"But almost certainly will be significantly profitable with just a small 5 cents move lower in the currency which everybody (maybe 95% of analysts) expects within 12-18 months if not sooner."
If you are so sure of this, wouldn't you be better off punting the fx futures markets? Better leverage and no noise.
The FX market is sufficiently deep and well traded that every expectation is fully priced in. The market's best estimate of where the price will be tomorrow is where it is now (ST interest rate differentials). If it was sure to be higher tomorrow, it would be higher now.
If if you like Arrium's direction etc then by all means have a crack, but you might be disappointed if you are relying on the currency to fall. FWIW, I am on the sidelines, looking forward to hearing from the new chair. I suggest a cleaning out of some dud businesses is in order (eg recycling; no profit for 6 years)
ARI Price at posting:
78.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
