Greenland and Antarctica&#039;s accelerating ice loss

Originally posted by denmor ↑

Time for a laugh

Xinhua News Agency – 1 March 2008
“If Norway’s average temperature this year equals that in 2007, the ice cap in the Arctic will all melt away, which is highly possible judging from current conditions,” Orheim said.
[Dr. Olav Orheim - Norwegian International Polar Year Secretariat]
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Canada.com – 16 November 2007
“According to these models, there will be no sea ice left in the summer in the Arctic Ocean somewhere between 2010 and 2015.
“And it’s probably going to happen even faster than that,” said Fortier,””
[Professor Louis Fortier - Université Laval, Director ArcticNet]
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National Geographic – 12 December 2007
“NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.” ”
[Dr. Jay Zwally - NASA]
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BBC – 12 December 2007
“Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007,”…….”So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.”
[Professor Wieslaw Maslowski]
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National Snow and Ice Data Center – 5 May 2008
“Could the North Pole be ice free this melt season? Given that this region is currently covered with first-year ice, that seems quite possible.”
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National Geographic News – 20 June 2008
North Pole May Be Ice-Free for First Time This Summer
“We’re actually projecting this year that the North Pole may be free of ice for the first time [in history],” David Barber, of the University of Manitoba, told National Geographic News aboard the C.C.G.S. Amundsen, a Canadian research icebreaker.
[Dr. David Barber]
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Independent – 27 June 2008
Exclusive: Scientists warn that there may be no ice at North Pole this summer
“…..It is quite likely that the North Pole will be exposed this summer – it’s not happened before,” Professor Wadhams said.”
[Professor Peter Wadhams - Cambridge University]
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Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment Report – 2009
“…There is a possibility of an ice-free Arctic Ocean for a short period in summer perhaps as early as 2015. This would mean the disappearance of multi-year ice, as no sea ice would survive the summer melt season….”
http://www.arctis-search.com/Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment (AMSA)
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Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences
Vol. 40: 625-654 – May 2012
The Future of Arctic Sea Ice
“…..one can project that at this rate it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer. Regardless of high uncertainty associated with such an estimate, it does provide a lower bound of the time range for projections of seasonal sea ice cover…..”
[Professor Wieslaw Maslowski]
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Guardian – 11 August 2012
“Very soon we may experience the iconic moment when, one day in the summer, we look at satellite images and see no sea ice coverage in the Arctic, just open water.”
[Dr Seymour Laxon - Centre for Polar Observation & Modelling - UCL]
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Yale Environment360 – 30 August 2012
“If this rate of melting [in 2012] is sustained in 2013, we are staring down the barrel and looking at a summer Arctic which is potentiallyfree of sea ice within this decade,”
[Dr. Mark Drinkwater]
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Guardian – 17 September 2012
“This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and willprobably be complete by those dates“.
[Professor Peter Wadhams - Cambridge University]
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Sierra Club – March 23, 2013
“For the record—I do not think that any sea ice will survive this summer. An event unprecedented in human history is today, this very moment, transpiring in the Arctic Ocean….”
[Paul Beckwith - PhD student paleoclimatology and climatology - part-time professor]
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Financial Times Magazine – 2 August 2013
“It could even be this year or next year but not later than 2015 there won’t be any ice in the Arctic in the summer,”
[Professor Peter Wadhams - Cambridge University]
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The Scotsman – 12 September 2013
“The entire ice cover is now on the point of collapse.
…….It is truly the case that it will be all gone by 2015. The consequences are enormous and represent a huge boost to global warming.”
[Professor Peter Wadhams - Cambridge University]
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all good entertaining stuff - so a few climate scientists get carried away from time to time

But here's what the IPCC was saying in 2007, so it looks to me like the peer review and IPCC process delivers what it should - good critique and correction of outlier views. But also rather conservative reporting a long way from the fun quotes you guys have come up with. Why do you guys always misrepresent the real, concensus, peer reviewed science so badly? I can only guess.

"Warming is expected to cause a reduction in the area covered by sea ice, which in turn will allow increased absorption of solar radiation and a further increase in temperature. In some climate models, this sea ice-albedo feedback has led to amplification of projected warming at higher latitudes, more in the Arctic Ocean than in the Southern Ocean. At some point, with prolonged warming a transition to an Arctic Ocean that is ice-free in summer—and perhaps even in the winter—could take place. The possibility of a transition to an ice-free Arctic Ocean that is irreversible also must be considered. Climate models predict a wide range of changes for polar sea ice by the year 2100 (see TAR WGI Chapter 1). Many of the earlier models treated sea ice very simplistically and were not coupled with the ocean, so their results are unlikely to be reliable. More recent climate models include sophisticated sea-ice routines that take into account the dynamics and thermodynamics that control sea-ice formation, transport, and melt (Everett and Fitzharris, 1998). These models, however, still are limited in their ability to reproduce detailed aspects of sea-ice distribution and timing.

it's also noticeable that the cherry picked views posted above are; many from just one scientist; one from a student; many talking about possibilities rather than certainties. But, hey, don't let the facts get in the way of a good story chaps. What the IPCC was saying was quite conservative. It's not as fun as picking off a few random quotes, but it is the truth of the matter.