Chand,
I am no geologist or reservoir engineer, however I would have thought the uncertainties would be quite different to that you portray.
I would have thought they have a fairly good idea already about oil saturation, or oil/water ratio as you put it. Sure the water content reduces the oil in place, but I doubt it's that high, or that uncertain to be the key factor.
You are assuming that the sands are the same thickness across the whole closure area. I would have thought that perhaps they deliberately drilled where the thickness might be greatest, and that continuity of all sands wouldn't be across the entire closure. Calculating the oil in place will not be quite the simple arithmetic exercise you make it.
Then there is the recovery factor which will be a complex task.
I will be happy to defer to any half decent reservoir engineer or similar, but until then I feel very much in the dark wrt recoverable oil, not feeling too enlightened by your arithmetic.
EL
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