my earnings forecasts: 3 bagger, 2 years, page-8

Two insto's I've talked to: a) one turned it down - waiting for franked dividends (great - we'll have some buying come in once that's announced, b) one said that they'd like to see it a bit further down the turnaround path prior to buying (d'oh...oh well, we'll see some buying from them sooner or later).

He's trying posting a spreadsheet...he're hoping it looks ok.

TOX FREE SOLUTIONS - SUMMARY OPTIMISTIC, BUT REALISABLE SCENARIO
Share Capital 532,747,028 fully diluted
Price $0.115 23/02/2002

KWINANA 2006 2007 2008
TDU
Capacity 1.0 2.9 5.0 TPH
Production 2,400 9,600 33,600 TPA
Revenue $3,600,000 $6,720,000 $20,160,000
EBITDA $1,800,000 $3,494,400 $10,080,000
Waste Water
Revenue $990,000 $2,640,000 $3,300,000 Note: this would require expanded pondage, and using Karatha
EBITDA $345,000 $920,000 $1,150,000

Packaged Waste
Revenue $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 Can expand on site
EBITDA $600,000 $990,000 $1,320,000

TOTAL - KWINANA
Revenue $4,690,000 $9,510,000 $23,660,000
EBITDA $2,745,000 $5,404,400 $12,550,000

DELVEX
Revenue $1,800,000 $4,500,000 $5,625,000 Practically unlimited expansion capacity
EBITDA $600,000 $1,500,000 $1,875,000

PORT HEADLAND
Revenue $5,700,000 $6,686,100 $6,953,544 Note: this would require expanded pondage, and using Karatha
EBITDA $2,850,000 $3,476,772 $3,754,914

SUBTOTAL MORE CERTAIN, AND ORGANIC GROWTH
Revenue $12,190,000 $20,696,100 $36,238,544
EBITDA $6,195,000 $10,381,172 $18,179,914
Dep'n & Amort ($300,000) ($800,000) ($1,000,000)
Interest $0 $0 ($150,000)
PBT $5,895,000 $9,581,172 $17,029,914
Tax ($891,026) $20m of tax losses
NPAT $5,895,000 $9,581,172 $16,138,888
eps $0.011 $0.018 $0.030
PE 10.4x 6.4x 3.8x
NORMALISED RESULTS
NPAT $4,126,500 $6,706,820 $11,920,940 simulates full tax
eps $0.008 $0.013 $0.022
PE 14.8x 9.1x 5.1x
Value of Tax losses what are the tax losses actually worth?
Tax credits used $1,768,500 $2,874,352 $4,217,948
Discount factor 1.0x 1.10 1.21 low discount rate - this is a low risk business
DCF $1,768,500 $2,613,047 $3,485,908
Cumulative Value $7,867,455
Per share tax value $0.015
Revised PE 12.9x 8.0x 4.5x

OTHER OPTIONS
KARATHA Probable, but Less Certain work outside of waste water
Revenue $750,000 $1,125,000
EBITDA $247,500 $371,250

ACQUISITIONS Speculative - they'll definitely do something, just a matter of how big
Revenue $500,000 $750,000
EBITDA $165,000 $247,500

SUB-TOTAL -OTHER OPTIONS pretty modest for the moment
Revenue $1,250,000 $1,875,000
EBITDA $412,500 $618,750

TOTAL
Revenue $12,190,000 $21,946,100 $38,113,544
EBITDA $6,195,000 $10,793,672 $18,798,664
Dep'n & Amort ($300,000) ($800,000) ($1,000,000)
Interest $0 $0 ($150,000)
PBT $5,895,000 $9,993,672 $17,648,664
eps $0.011 $0.019 $0.033
PE 10.4x 6.1x 3.5x