Haplo
I would take both on board, I just think GS timing is wrong (as usual) but they did give it 12 months to cover themselves, Will most likely see that 40 cents next year but before that we will see those higher levels first.
We are now in the most seasonally weak period of the year, Buyers are at a conference next week drinking and singing Karaoke then on a weeks holiday immediately thereafter (1st-7th Oct) That likely translates to weak flat pricing.
A couple more weeks to get their feet back under the desk and then we should see strengthening in the price as the re-stock begins.
Mid Nov should also see a high in the materials index, The timing of it is so far is playing out as it should
Good Luck
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