Yes there are quite a few factors working against gold, perceived inflation rate as you mentioned is just one.
My contrarian investment will either be a spectacular fail or win, nothing in between.
I am working on the theory that gold is experiencing a shake out in a longer term bull market.
Fortunately I bought bullion very early on, and stopped buying at 600 USD so I have a very large buffer.
I started accumulating gold shares after spot gold had its worst quarterly performance in 93 years in Q2 of 2013. They are definitely out of favour. They can get even more out of favour, but ROI will be huge if the secular bull market resumes.
Patience is a virtue, but sometimes I have too much I think. LOL
