6c capital raising, another crisis will bring it to 3-5c.
Considering the REE prices outlook, I will only risk at 3-5c.
One way to see this is if you are sitting on a $150000+ profit for the year, and the the tax bill is substantial then use the $20-$50k to put it in Lynas. If you lose your tax bill would be offset against your gain, if you win then you are adding to the profit. It's a win-win situation.
Japan's priority is to secure rare earth minerals for its high tech companies, and Lynas along with Molycorp are one of the few reliable non-China suppliers that the Japanese can rely on. An Chinese company thinking of taking over Lynas seems to be a remote possibility. Any other western rare earth companies are not even close to the level of operations that Lynas and Molycorp have achieved.
A insolvent Lynas would only be good for Mt Kellet if it has hedged by shorting all this while. And if so, they probably profited massively by now.
Borrowing from a famous market saying I could imply, Rare earth prices can remain irrational longer than Lynas or any other rare earth company can remain solvent.
The key issue is not Phase 1/Phase 2 production/REE prices, but the COP prices - they got to work on having their COP cost less than ASP price even at 'WHATEVER' production level and at 'WHATEVER' current rare earth prices through the means of 'WHATEVER' breakthrough method on different rare earth minerals processing stages.
Bring it on.
Sab Maya
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