I am stumped. The USD/BRL has changed in the last month from $1 USD 2.20 BRL to 2.40 BRL. That is a 20 cent movement. Which, if I read the annoucement right, should add $48 mill to BDR cash flow. That should skyrocket the share. But it has not.
From the BDR 11 Sep Investor presentation
For every US$0.10 movement in
the USD/BRL exchange rate, net
operating cash flow moves by
~US$24M (US$0.10~R$0.22)
Now the problem I have is BDR are incapable of providing a normal sentence announcement. If you read this MATHEMATICALLY, it says the $US0.10 is R0.22. So they are talking in '10 cents' units. Or are they. It would make no sense to talk about the USD DOUBLING. That is, if you are talking in 10 cent units you dont talk about a 10 cents movement.
I read the announcement as saying, using DOLLAR units, if the dollar moves 10 cents, then there is 24 mill of cash flow. Now, again, one would think the announcement would be if the BRL moves. But who am I to second guess the obscurity of BDR announcements. And I cant email them as they will say 'interpret it yourself' (as they have in the past).
So, stumped I am. The USD has strengthen 10% against the BRL in the last month. Costs are BRL. Revenue us USD. So, however you look at the annoucement there is a substantial HELP to the cash flow... even to the tune of $48 mill - if I 'interpret' the annoucement correctly.
Now... why is the share price dying? Is this the trade up to the SURPRISE quarterly? Will there be some zingo in the quarterly. And will the smart arse BDR apolgists come on here and say that 'oh, you could see what will happen... look at page 14 of announcment 'x' and read between the lines... EVERYBODY but you, stupid Dan, knew a shocker was coming'.
Anyway, back on point. Can any of the smart arse BDR aplogists tell me why a substantion terms of trade currency movement favourable to BDR - and even highlighted by BDR - has not upped the share price?
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