I spoke with ACL. As with shareholders, Board, management & staff are all in state of 'shock'. I got impression there will be no quick, significant announcements. Several things are underway:
(1) detailed analysis of Ph 3 results - will look at issues that various HC posters have mentioned - geographic differences, prior patient treatment histories, possible KRAS issues, patient sub-set performance, etc, etc. This likely to take about 6 weeks before they feel confident about saying anything.
(2) Based largely on above, conclusion re any residual HA-I value re colon cancer; value in continuing ongoing Ph 2 Chime & SCLC trials, and value/potential of overall HyAct technology platform
(3) An immediate review of budgets/costs/finance etc. Budget cuts a high probability
(4) Review of fonda & VAST activities, potential, options etc. Some expectation (hope?) that fonda revenues may improve a bit going into 2015 - end of DRL process improvement contributions, and Mylan taking over Arixtra/AG - thought that Mylan more focussed on profit than volume - Apotex very much volume focussed. But, at tops I'd guess fonda revenues at $10m to max.m $15 m/year. Say, abt 15-20 cents/share
(5) By early/mid January completion of overall strategic review and announcement re forward plans
I hope I'm wrong, but probable that only significant announcements at AGM in a couple of weeks may relate to budget cuts. I would have hoped they'd be able to give initial thoughts re issues in Point 1 above, but I have my doubts.
I made the point that I hope the budget cuts start at the very top and that it would be good to see a large chunk of forward fonda revenues passed directly to shareholders as dividends, even if only 2 cents/share. But, if they decide there's continuing real value in HyAct that needs be internally funded, I wouldn't hold out great hope for fonda dividends.
In my view, depending on any residual HyAct value, what can be generated from fonda, and what value in VAST, etc - in 6 months time could be looking at overall share value of between 15-30 cents. I personally don't see much value in selling out now at 10 cents
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