Fairly obvious frm their 3Dseis that the nxt 2 wells should b east & west of Fan-1 to define & understand the continuity of the sands (i.e, sand pinchouts).
For now though with the oil samples, pressure data & SWC's analysis they should b able to lock in a 2C contingent estimate around a short radius frm the wellbore (ie ring fence it with the available data).
They can lock in a 2P resource after a DST on the nxt well/s.
For now the MDT data should suffice, for banking a 2C estimate, as the tool is opened/closed for a set duration to fill up the sample chambers, so they can work out the time (sec/min), capacity (cc/Litre), pressure (psi) & flow rate of the Oil sampled sections.
Challenge here is we r stuck with 3 operators on 3 continents (CNE-COP-FAR) & each bourse has a set protocol on reporting the Resource. In the US the majors generally report Proved developed & Proved undeveloped numbers, so will b interesting to see how COP handle their findings.
If the resource sits in a range seen at 2 producing fields to the farsouth, ie CNR's Baobab (200 mmbbls rec, 800 OIIP, 23 API oil) & JUA not the deeper block (apprx 700mmbbls, 36-37 API oil) then COP have got themselves a good find in my view. They can work on the actual Commercials after the nxt 2 appraisal wells.
Here's the clearer 3Dseis from Cairn's preso, I've just added the clip lithology from FAR's Oct preso. Add the gamma, neutron density log over that section & they'll know exactly where the 29m net sands plus other thin sands are in that gross column straightaway.
I just wish I could get my hands on that data, very frustrating. My mind boggles, I know what they r doing, know what they r thinking. Need to get away from this or it will do my head in. Better leave it till December.....Fingers crossed for SNE-1. All the best lads...
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