LNG Chart, page-274

"Flipping a coin comes down to probability. Flip it enough times and you will get close to 50%heads 50% tails. So if you flip it heads 5 times straight then the odds are getting better for a tails as you go. No guarantee though."

Actually that's completely untrue. After your 5 heads straight the odds of getting a tail are still 50/50. This is a very common misunderstanding of probability and statistics.

"As a stock goes up up up it becomes more risky to entry - sooner or later it will fall back. All things go in cycles"

This is also incorrect. You are assuming that nothing has changed apart from the SP. If that's the case then yes what you say is true. If however the company has overcome a large number of risk hurdles then it may now be much safer to enter.