Consider this though. Using WN's logic:
Cost of drilling a deepwater well = $100m
Chance of success is 1% (per WN)
Values a (successful) well at (at least) $10b (100m x 100). "At least "because that is just break-even. I.e. drill 100 wells costs you $10b. Recovery for the one that comes off has to be $10b min.
Therefore the 2 Senegal discoveries (lets assume they are successes) are worth at least $20b
FAR's share is 15% of $20b = $3b
Or $1 a share (for Senegal alone)
ROFL. Maybe I have a decimal in the wrong place
top 10 fields discovered this year...., page-63
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