Weekly Fundamental and Technical Analysis Prospects - Week Starting 17th Nov 2014 (No. 140)
Here’s this week’s FA and TA List. The newer items first and those carried forward from last week towards back of list (some of the items from last week have a time horizon of more that one week). All listed market caps are undiluted (and do not include escrowed shares) (Note: Max time for any entry on list will be 4 weeks after which time it will be removed).
Important Note: Remember just because it appears on the list does not necessarily mean it will rise in price... it may actually fall or do nothing. So it is critical that you perform detailed research on each stock first and make your own mind up to whether invest or not. I suggest you run a stop-loss at all times when trading/investing. How tight your stops are depends on your threshold to risk and financial pain. Lastly I take no responsibility for the accuracy of the information provided as I do not have the time to research all the facts that have been provided. Best of Luck.!
Weekly Fundamental Analysis Prospects ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CYP - Biotechnology [Melbourne ] [17/11/2014] Developing an allogeneic stem cell therapy, Cymerus. John King ex psy recently bought a large parcel. Will run into option expiry Poster: MasseyFerguson (STT Accuracy: Unknown) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14289051/single (Mcap: $15.7m)
OIL - Health Tech [17/11/2014] Share Price : 053c Market Cap ; $6.3m Shares ; 120m ( around 50m held by top 20) Optiscan announced today it received a milestone payment of €180,000 from Carl Zeiss in recognition their disposable sheath development. The recognition and consequent payment marks a critical downstream progression of this project following the successful completion of testing announced in August this year. The sheath will now be integrated with Optiscan’s stand-alone rigid endomicroscopy system, which will be deployed in the field of neurosurgery providing real time, high resolution tissue imaging at a cellular level, bringing the microscope to the patient. This prolonged process had placed considerable pressure on the company over the past couple of years but now that the final component of their neurosurgical system have been completed, the risk of failures is closed out and the design is fit for its intended use. This now allows the final stages of clinical testing to be completed concurrently with the preparation of regulatory submissions for CE marking and FDA clearance for the product suite. With respect to gmutton, a very knowledgeable poster on the OIL threads who did some back of the envelope calculations on revenues possible from this sheath (which will be incorporated as part of Zeiss in-hospital technology) ;"The numbers are staggering ....."To be listed among top hospitals for neurology and neurosurgery, hospitals had to have treated at least 341 inpatients in need of high-level expertise in the specialty in 2007, 2008, and 2009.Thirteen hundred hospitals made the list, “That’s 443300 operations needing at least one sheath per operation. Say $200.00/sheath and that is $88.6m? Per annum? (just back of the envelope remember ) And that is from just one OIL product alone. Seems like these guys have been slogging it out for years making no money, developing world class best in breed technology to uncompromising standards and it is finally coming to a head. With FDA approval and commercialisation around the corner, there is no way this will stay capped at $6m. MASSIVE kudos to Cornelius who threw this onto the DT thread today allowing some of us to get on board. If he wants to take this STT tip as his own he has only to say so and I am happy to hand it over. Poster: Deltatrader (STT Accuracy: 35.7% - Ranking No.11 ) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14293669/single (Mcap: $9.8m)
CXZ - Tech providing content to automobiles [17/11/2014] Everyone is loving tech atm. These guys have already signed agreements with VW and Continental Group ( a $1.8b euro company ) to provide content into automobiles. Details of revenues expected are sketchy though. Also a deal with a HK based mob but revs are only small at $500k over three years. Analyst’s tip 25% of all cars will be internet connected by EOY 2015 and growing exponentially. As always ...content is king and these guys are striving to be at the forefront of putting internet based content into cars.. $13.5 MC ?? Should be higher Poster: Deltatrader (STT Accuracy: 35.7% - Ranking No.11 ) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14290386/single (Mcap: $4.7m)
RNU - Copper [In South Aust] [14/11/2014] $1M cash (Sept 2014) 136M FPO EV = $2.7M @ 2.7c Most recent CR: ~$1M @ 5c Top 20 shareholding 58%• Board shareholding 42%Should see some interest reappear this month with drilling recommencing in a week and assays due in early December from 1000m of RC drilling. I've held patiently with RNU, knowing that the rewards could be very large and recognising management are heavily invested. Great position next to an untested fault zone in the Olympic Dam copper belt. Untested due to previous access restrictions. New system discovered at 1050 East, with early drill cores of 13m at 1.45% Cu, 66 ppm Ag and 0.17% Co (from 215m), including massive sulphide zone of 8m @ 2.2% Cu, 92 ppm Ag and 0.26% Co. Most recent investor presentation:http://www.aspectfinancial.com.au/d...Jyb3JwYWdlcy9wZGZkZWxheWVkLmpzcA==&popup=true Poster: Heraclitus (STT Accuracy: Unknown) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14282393/single (Mcap: $5.5m)
POZ - Gold and Phosphate [14/11/2014] Current price 0.018 Predicted price : 0.03 They currently have a market cap of 2.256m, however, the recent sell of the tuckanarra project gives them an extra $2m in cash and 10 million shares in MMY (monument mining, listed on the Canadian exchange, currently trading at .012). Should give the company a market cap up to $4m at the least as the financial report stated $2m in cash holding at the time of release. Poster: Fouzia (STT Accuracy: Unknown) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14280813/single (Mcap: $3.2m)
AON - Iron Ore [In South Aust] [14/11/2014] AON’s main focus is the Titan Base Metals Project, SA, which contains 3 main prospects: Acacia East, Bundi and Wirrida. The Company’s other focus is the Commonwealth Project, also in SA. Market Cap: ~ $7.75m, Industry: Materials IOCG mineralisation intersected at Titan.Link to the ann. Significant IOCG alteration and mineralisation identified along a discontinuous length of approximately 60 metres to the end of hole. Assays from this hole are due by end of November. Should see a spike before now and end of Nov. Edit: Last traded price when posted --> $0.015. It was $0.013 before the ann Poster: Chai_wala (STT Accuracy: Unknown) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14283302/single (Mcap: $7.7m)
RGX - Leisure and Tourism [WA based, ] [13/11/2014] Current SP ; 0055 MC ; $4m Transaction to refocus Company’s activities on leisure and tourism industry on track to complete December quarter 2014. ? Share Sale Agreements signed with Holiday Planet, Asia Escape and Motive Travel for their acquisitions. ? EGM to be held on 27 November 2014 seeking shareholder approvals of acquisitions, capital consolidation, capital raising, and appointment of directors and rebranding as the Australian Travel Group Limited (“ATG”). ? Independent expert has concluded that the relevant acquisition is fair and reasonable to shareholders. ? Prospectus to be lodged shortly. Prospectus just out says consolidation will take place at 008c. Current offer 006c Broker reports and HC emails valuing the stock at over 1c pre-consolidation. No brainer at 006c. Poster: Deltatrader (STT Accuracy: 35.7% - Ranking No.11 ) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14275918/single (Mcap: $4.2m)
CSS - Aquaculture [in S.Aust ] [11/11/2014] Current SP ; .082c, MC ; $87m, 2103/14 First profit since 2006/07, achieved one year earlier than previously expected -Both a statutory and an underlying profit Yellowtail Kingfish growth performance exceeded expectation -Further demonstration of viable business model based on Hiramasa Yellowtail Kingfish -Successful Share Purchase Plan raised $9m at 3.2 cents in November / December 2013 -Continued net positive cash position, no net debt 571 tonnes sold and year end biomass of 1,300 tonnes to facilitate 2014/15 sales growth -Receipt of $6.2m R&D tax incentive refund for 2012/13 (recognised in 2013/14 accounts) The world needs more fish and these guys are working hard to provide the supply. Poster: Deltatrader (STT Accuracy: 35.7% - Ranking No.11 ) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14263028/single (Mcap: $89.5m)
QBL - Alumina [In Queensland] [10/11/2014] Last traded price 2.7c has released a positive scoping study to sell DSO bauxite north QLD to china. 18/t margin, (55/t for its ore. It's not top shelf stuff, but its still makes a great profit because of the reduced costs, logistical advantages, 15-20km to port, and low shipping costs to china) Would see it making 14m profit, for a 14m mc. Re-rating no brainer, if all the other i's and t's get dotted and crossed. It ran to 4.1c on the SS release, and profit taking knocked it back. It also at that time only carried an inferred resource, so remained speculative. It is now in a temporary suspension, as it prepares to release its resource upgraded to indicate status, which is the level that is required to move forward on offtakes, and licensing etc. As its scoping study is targeting only 800kt pa, it will only need to JORC up indicated enough to support the type of ore qualified in the SS at 55/t. Namely, something like 30% AL/ 3% SI Rx. If it were to delineate enough of this to put the credence behind the SS , it will re-rate as a near term producer, with only 5m in capex required. Poster: Merlerredneck (STT Accuracy: Unknown) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14257657/single (Mcap: $11.6m)
OGY - Oil/Gas [Cooper Basin] [10/11/2014] Akela-1 well is currently drilling, should have reached TD over this weekend with initial results due on Monday, by my calculations. Market cap of $6.8M with $3.6M in the bank, no debt & current production from 2 wells in the Burruna oil field (South Cooper Basin) to keep the bank balance rising daily. Production from one well currently constrained by ability to dispose of produced water, currently being addressed by Senex, once sorted Orca's share of net production should top 200 bopd again. Current 2P reserves of @ 300,000 BO. Akela-1 is located 2.9KM north of the 1990's Crumpa-1 well which had good sand quality & oil shows at several horizon's but was drilled off structure. Akela-1 is the first non-commitment well drilled by Senex within the 1000km Dundinna 3D seismic survey, from over 50 possible prospects that they could have chosen from. It has 4 way dip closure & is targeting 4 possible horizons. Senex have a success rate of 6 from 11 in 4 way dip closures. Orca has a 20% interest in PEL110 and any discovery will significantly increase the value of the company & the prospectivity of the rest of the block which has 20+ known structural prospects. The Keleary oil field & pipeline is only 12km away. See pages 10 & 11 for more details http://www.senexenergy.com.au/uploa...trating the Cooper Basin growth potential.pdf Burruna where oil currently has to be trucked to market costs under $30 a barrel to produce & has a high profit margin (over $50 per barrel at current prices). Akela is also a much larger prospect than Burruna. If Akela is a successful discovery, a second well will be drilled immediately in PEL110 on a prospect just south of Akela. Certainly worth checking out. For the record I do have a substantial holding. Poster: LastoftheMohicans (STT Accuracy: Unknown) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14259100/single (Mcap: $5.4m)
VET - Private education provider [Aust] [10/11/2014] Market cap $153m, Raising $74m in September 2014 @$3.05, Current sp: 66.5c, Forecast EBIT: $55m. Sp dropped more than 70% since the company released bad news of losing $20m government grant. Today was ninth day after bad news, and hit new low. It appears oversold and may have technical bounce ahead. Future Fund topped up after recent drop. Directors bought over 568,000 share @88c High risk. Poster: Accaeric (STT Accuracy: 38.9% - Ranking No.9 ) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14254645/single (Mcap: $162.1m)
OGI - Graphite [ In Mozambique] [12/11/2014] Currently trading at 1c up 11% today bounced Off .08c low this week to form a neat reversal pattern MACD about to turn Slow Stochastic in line with upward trend to occur Poster: Moiramc (STT Accuracy: Unknown) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14270964/single (Mcap: $3.3m)