Nice Gumbles. Thankfully someone here is seriously crunching the numbers and giving us some realistic forecasts rather than hyping the stock based on gut feeling.
I'm not going to top up until more clarity is given as to the acquisitons they are courting. Given that they talked in the 1/2 yearly about a "number of acquisitions", i get the feeling they are targeting smaller companies like Delvex that can deliver EPS accretive revenue + strong synergies, rather than undertaking one big acquisition that'll require burdensome debt or a capital raising.
I'm glad to hear that the Port Headland facility upgrade was completed as scheduled and will provide benefits from the June quarter onwards.
But, going forward, the 2 major growth paths are through upgrading the TDU at Kwinana, and acqusitions in similar vein to Delvex. They said in the half-yearly they still were getting engineers/designers to assess the viability of a TDU upgrade, and that they were assessing the sufficiency of demand to see if a 5-fold increase in throughput at the TDU could be fully utilised.
A good stock today should be a good stock in 12 months time. As i said, i currently hold and won't be topping up until those two growth uncertainties (Kwinana/acquisitons) are made more certain. The temptation certainly is there to get in at these prices but i'm happy to wait, and pay a little bit more price for a lot more certainty.
Cheers to all TOX holders and let's enjoy the ride :)
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