watch it run today, page-10

re: nice run today...tomorrow news? Has to be something coming given POO was down and Nabrajah flow test a dud. Most likley pipeline related. FEED and scoping studies are due within the next two weeks and of course there's always STO. Also the dividend will have attracted some insto buying so they will then be happy to support the sp as well. Oh yeah and I reckon that realised oil price this quarter will be higher than last quarter's US$59...so its all good.

I keep going back to the fact that OSH has over 750mboe in (gas) "resources" (its closer to 850 but I'm taking out some for the AGL sale) and that the pipeline and associated developments will convert around half to reserves. Current reserves are 135mboe so that will push it up to 500mboe. And a petrochemical plant and CNG developments would push that up towards 600mboe (with still another 400mboe in resources). Now WPL has 1,244 mboe reserves and a capitalisation of around $30b. OSH could have 600mboe reserves and currently has a capitalisation of $5b. So .. 1/2 the reserves 1/6 the capitalisation (of course WPL's production is currently MUCH higher)....hmmmmm there's plenty of room for updside IMHO! OSH is at a similar stage to WPL in 2003/04 when it was less than $20 and still a couple of years away from the doubling of revenue with the LNG sales to China and other developments by 2006/07. Now if the pipeline proceeds OSH is 3 years from a massive increase in revenues (from gas and liquids). I can see OSH at $6-$8 by 2009 and $5 this year once the pipeline is sanctioned.

And......the $s from AGL will help fund these developments and an extensive exploration program. It keeps getting better and better.

Of course... do your own etc

H