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sierra

11,154 Posts.

28/11/14

20:06

Post #: 14375201
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Originally posted by Tapdancer ↑

sierra - The point I'm making is that, in spite of all our knowledge, climate science is still in its infancy. With measurements being so 'out' and predictions being so off the mark, I don't think we can be confident of being anywhere near the truth.

The current consensus estimates of warming, as predicted by models, are running more than double over what I think our great grandchildren are going to have to deal with circa 2100. So no, I'm not worried by 3 or 4 degree warming estimates which, to me, come across more as articles of faith ('the missing heat's buried in the oceans - just you wait') than what empirical evidence is telling us.

I really do like what Judith Curry has to say on the matter.

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What makes your thoughts more accurate than the current consensus estimates?
By the same process others might come to the conclusion they are too conservative and 5 or 6 degrees is more likely.

At least she seems to have an open mind on the subject.
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