No worries lgs
Potential value of the company? Ooooh well. Im not really qualified to say - and the truth of course is that it's all hypothetical. If the Her-Vaxx 1B/II trials are a success, and if big Pharma does a licensing deal with IMU and if the deal is worth $x......
A good starting point though is to read the Proactive Investors research note from 26 November and the Edison research note of 27 November. They are both on the IMU website at this URL:
http://www.imugene.com/investor-center/2014-share-purchase-plan
The Edison note is very conservative indeed, suggesting licensing deals of $20m or $50m after the Phase 2 trial and timeframes much longer than IMU has suggested. With 1.156b shares on offer (before the current share offer to holders is finalised) a $50m value for IMU would only be a SP of 0.043. or so. Still a 400% rise on what it currently is - but not as spectacular as I might like, lol.
Then again - they also point out recent deals worth far more. Edison and Proactive both mention recent deals in the $100m - $250m range. So Proactive considers IMU to be "worth" 0.034 - 0.047 within 6 months - before the Ph 2 trial is complete and without any licensing deal.
A really interesting report lists the major drug therapy licensing deals of 2013 - some of them worth up to a billion dollars - with oncology deals the most popular and immunotherapy the current area of major interest:
http://www.medius-associates.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Medius-Annual-Deal-Watch-20133.pdf
So to me it's not unreasonable to consider the possibility of a deal in the $150 - $200m range. Purely speculative and hypothetical, of course. That would result in a SP of up to 0.17 - which is much nicer...
Honestly - it's impossible to tell. I think the Proactive comparison with companies at a similar range of development certainly identifies a huge SP undervaluation for IMU compared to its peers. As the market becomes more aware of the company - particularly once the Ph 2 trial is underway - we should see a SP several times what it is now. Then the choice will be - sell to take that profit - or hold on for the chance of a major prize.
Right now, I'm inclined to hold on - but the first step is to get this CR out of the way, and progress to the Ph 1b/II trials. Then we will see how the market reacts.
Best wishes
Dave![]()
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