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10/12/14
12:18
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Originally posted by longshot41
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Billcan, I'm trying to do my day job because I'm not as wealthy on paper as I was at 30c plus but that's life.
In my view the stock has been way oversold with a PE of 15 or so ridiculous for a stock with a proven profit of $3.150 mil last FY which is likely to be in the $4-5 mil range depending on the next 6 months which management says is likely to be stronger.
I just emailed one of my mates with the following fundamentals as he was raising eyebrows, as is everyone who is witnessing this sell down of our beloved stock.
Additional advertising contract of $5.35 million this FY
SingTel in Singapore (plus M1) and Swisscomm now live and growing significantly
Nortel signed and in test phase
Entire UK signed and in test phase (May/June start) and 4 times the size of Aust and NZ
3 Russian carriers signed (but delayed due to sanctions)
Zero debt and $10 mil in the bank
Just bought Performace Factory online marketing which will add $5 mil turnover and $1 mil profit from the get go
Turnover up another 30% for this 6 months to over $12 mil from $9.2 mil.
Games subscriptions likely over 50,000 per week at $3 each = $7.8 mil turnover with high margin. Total turnover last year was $19.2 and heading for $26-30 mil.
70% margins on products
Perform soccer product
Fitness product
Health product
Health product
US waiting for AT & T and Verizon and they will likely sign all carriers through connectivity partner
I've told him to either hold or average down as this is a very unique opportunity to get your hands on a quality tech stock that certainly has more to prove, but is likely to succeed with EPS rising and most importantly with no cash burn or debt. IT'S MAKING MONEY!!!!
Everyone needs to make up their own mind as to where the stock should be. My view is 22-25c with a modest premium for Aust growth and Swiss/SingTel, games and advertising heading north nicely.
The real kick will come from outperformance in advertising and games in 2015 which I'm expecting to be the surprise package, coupled with the UK integrating swiftly like Aust and Swiss as it falls into their "easy" catagory. That's another 83 million Poms buying a whole range of products seamlessly onto their direct carrier billing account.
Even Q knows this stock is at the bottom and is buying them today which is pleasing.
Hope this helps Billcan.
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I think the Games is reaching peak if it hasn't already done so. I've been expecting this for a while. I think any surprise is going to come from the new Apps rather than existing - though I note one of those apps is the new Games Haus, which works on a slightly different model as Chris explained it. The 'games haus' app has a few zero charge games, but to unlock extra's it costs $$$. I like that model, your' essentially use the games themselves as advertising or a customer acquisition tool. I'm hopeful that it will perform well - perhaps not initially, but as people use it for a few week's I think the $$$ will start trickling through - although it is essentially a test of a new app model for MBE.