Great Question Burnett. Some of the motivators to consider may be:
1. Mining & Processing geographical Synergies. Cupric have immediate synergies because of their purchase of Canada's Hana Mining in 2013 and DML's Boseto operations would enable them to commercialise those resources straight away. MOD (ASX) may have some synergies as well and are reporting very promising resource results, but I suspect are a little too far away to garner any real synergies from DML's assets
2. Concentrate Synergies: DML's higher grade concentrates could be a great sweetener for other low grade concentrate producers to lift their average concentrate grade into the commercial zone. This synergy would need DML to continue operating, so in addition to whatever they would be prepared to pay, they would need to be cognisant of stumping up the USD90M to develop the underground mine.
3. Smelter Synergies: DML's higher grade concentrates could be a great sweetener for smelters to help them lift their feed grade. The Botswana Consolidated smelter is 630km by road, the Ongopolo smelter in Namibia is ~800km and the Eiffel Flats in Zimbabwe is ~1000km away.
4. Immediate Access to a Copper Producer: Any copper producer facing significant shortfalls in production over the next year or two could view DML as a very cheap 'filler' to help them through the lean period, which they could flick at a later date.
Of course, having the cash to invest in the copper sector is the biggest hurdle, although this potentially could work in DML's favour. It's biggest advantage is at an operating asset with known characteristics. Many of the big future producers who will replace the Chilean producers are many years off production: Frieda River, Tampakan, etc. Most of the small to mid size wannabe's just can't raise the cash to move into production. Consequently, an operating mine and processing plant will be desirable over the next couple of years, but as Burnett asks, who has the cash and can convince their shareholders to acquire a business that clearly has potential but has not yet proved itself to be financially viable? I'm thinking there must be very few (none?) public companies whose shareholders would endorse such a proposal.
This leaves:
- the private equity firms backed by Capital funds who have some strategic approach to acquiring Copper properties: eg Cupric, but there may be others;
- Chinese investment holding companies who are prepared to acquire a not yet financially viable business because they are looking at the 20-50 year time horizon. For example Jinchuan Group International Resources Co. Ltd, an investment holding company, was actively acquiring in 2010-11. It is "involved in the development and management of mining resources projects, primarily copper and cobalt deposits located in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia within the Central African Copper Belt";
- other Government-backed firms, like the Russians?; and
- maybe some trading houses who can see the long term benefit of DML's resources (eg Glencore used to be a trader that diversified upstream into miners)
DML Price at posting:
1.2¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held