Im calling 10c by the end of the week, page-42

Shale activities in North America will not be overly affected by fracking bans as the bans are limited. The biggest driver that will determine production volumes hitting the market is the CAPEX spend that determines the number of wells that are drilled. The decline on shale wells is extremely sharp i.e. 900 bbl/d to 200 bbl/d in a matter of months. If follow up wells are not immediately drilled then overall production will drop quickly. If the POO is not high enough CAPEX is cut, wells are not drilled, and production drops. I forecast that production volumes from shale wells will be volatile, and therefore so will the price of oil as supply and demand dynamics will change rapidly.