Many here are expecting a big Q4 and a re-rating of the share price. Reviewing the history:
1) FY 2013 was a fantastic year which made BDR management look great.
2) Q1 2014 was a poor month but production guidance was increased. This was odd.
3) Q2 3 2014 was very poor due to rain. We were told that H1 2014 guidance was not met 3 weeks after the end of the quarter. So much for my wrong assumption that it must have been met due to no announcment prior to the end of June 2014.
4) Q3 was meant to be a massive improvment on Q2 in production terms. That never transpied. After the end of the quarter we were told that was expected as they were moving dirt for Q4. That was not at all an expectation that was built into the company reporting prior to the release of the Q3 2014 Report.
5) Q4 is going to be brilliantly according to those who have spoken with BDR Mgt.
6) 2015 Production is expect to be at low cost in the 180-200k oz range.
Given points 2-4 above, how can we believe points 5 & 6 are realistic? Anyone care to eleborate?
BDR Price at posting:
19.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
