Apologists, page-44

“It will be interesting to see how the market responds if MSB go to market in Japan. In my opinion this alone will in the eyes of investors validate the product.”

Djaw,

It may, for a period, but I wouldn’t bank on it having a lasting effect. Because ultimately – I believe – share prices are driven by the value of the enterprise which, in turn, is driven by revenue and profitability.

But if product validation is indeed one of the key strategic objectives, then in line with your questioning about Canada and New Zealand, one of the things I’ve never been able to understand is why MSB hasn’t already set up sales and distribution capability in Canada and NZ, where conditional marketing approval has been granted for a number of years now.

I would have thought that Canada and New Zealand, with their first world, western-style health regimes would provide as good, if not better, product validation as Japan.


As for Sirtex, I think the comparison with MSB – while an understandingly tempting one to make – is a bit of a tenuous one.

Here’s why I think so:

Firstly, SRX is clearly a bit of a “one-trick pony”, with highly targeted product suite focused on the treatment of inoperable liver cancer, while MSB – if it proves to be commercially successful – could have a range of revenue sources.

Clearly, MSB’s ultimate market opportunity is substantially larger than SRX’s, which I would describe as far more niche.

Assuming both companies reach commercial maturity, I expect MSB will be a much larger company than SRX.

On the flipside:

SRX last raised equity capital in 2001, and has:
- been generating Sales Revenues since 2005,
- been profitable since 2006,
- generated surplus capital since 2009,
- paid dividends since 2011, and
- has recorded 40 successive quarters of growth in product sales.

By comparison, MSB’s point of profitability and self-sustaining capital position appears to be still several years away.

These two companies are so different that I think any comparisons are near-meaningless.

So I think MSB is the better part of a decade behind SRX.
Assuming MSB gets to the point of commercialisation, of course.

(PS. In the interests of full disclosure, I am a shareholder in SRX, so I may have certain inherent biases. But if they exist, I believe they have their origins in SRX’s financial track record.)