The Brains Trust - 2015, page-234

Pisces

"The test for gold in this phase will be if the oil price stabilises and the US markets head up again."

I think you are right there. As a goldie follower I like the oil price heading lower as it reduces the cost of production for goldies, and I hope it stays down. Of course those who follow the oilers will not feel the same. I think another benefit for goldies from a lower oil price is that perhaps some of the money that had gone into speculating on oil may go into the gold/goldie market.

Its also possible that the US sharemarket will not find much traction in the first few months of 2015, and that would also be positive for gold/goldies. The US sharemarket has risen a lot in the last 2 years so perhaps a pause is on the cards - something like what poster Enigma's model was suggesting - see

http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/xjo-roadmap.2432684/?post_id=14518900#.VKxhtHsmZMs

One of my US gurus has just suggested that his followers buy some goldies because he sees a possible rally which may extend some months (time not specified). If the rally is extended then it will probably be shallow. I am glad I did not wait for his buy recommendation, which are mostly mistimed as far as the Oz market is concerned.

While most gurus I follow are pretty negative about the direction of gold two of them have turned positive or at least neutral. Charles Nenner's has said gold was expected to bottom in November, but that gold would then take a while to take off - trade in a range I suppose. His sharemarket predictions have been off the mark a lot, but he was more right on on gold.

Robert Prechter's mob turned positive on gold in November. I believe they used to be negative for a long time, but I could be wrong there. See article

http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/elliott-wave-charts-point-shocking-countertrend-gold

All goldies should rally along with the POG, assuming the run is significant, but I think the Oz goldies will do best because of the AUD factor. Obviously the doggies would run a lot, including MML. I am not a believer in gold going a long way, say beyond USD1300 unless we get inflation in the US (unlikely in the short term), because the Asian buyers are price sensitive and the influence of seasonal factors.

I hope goldiebugs get some relief from the punishment of the last 3 years. Good luck.

loki