A couple of points MRM investors need to be very concerned about:
- the company's earnings are massively sensitive to changes in vessel utilisation and day rates. If utilisation falls by 10% and days rates by 15%, EBIT margins (and earnings) fall by 50%. Simple as that.
- Globally, rig rates (jack up, floating) and vessel rates are falling by the greatest margin in 20 years. Rig count is falling precipitously. Historically, SE Asian utilisation has fluctuated by 40%-80% over the past 5 years. If MRM's SE Asian vessels hit 50% utilisation, Jaya will generate losses.
- There is a huge oversupply of boats (both 3,000t and >10,000t) coming out of SE Asia. This will crush day rates, which will impact MRM.
- Management made a grievous error in buying Jaya when they did. They could have bought Jaya for less than half of what they paid now. At least $250m of shareholders funds have gone up in smoke within the space of 6 months.
- On my modelling for MRM, I get 7c earnings per share by 2016 based on US$50 oil.
You've been warned.
MRM Price at posting:
$1.03 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
