This is a good read and makes perfect sense - the headline of $50 though is very contentious - see link on breakeven oil shale production, on top of which you have to have a lenders risk margin to justify the case for additional ongoing capital to replenish...
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/23/idUSL3N0SH5N220141023
plunge could hit $30 a barrel, page-29
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