new forecast, page-41

You forgot the one obvious one Pika:
China's GDP growth is about 7.5% and its population growth rate is 0.44% net. That 6 million extra people every year and increasing! With IO demand now in excess of 1Bt, the GDP growth rate alone will see an EXTRA 70Mt of IO required by the end of the year. Doesn't seem like much, but given some estimates of global IO oversupply at about 100Mtpa, China's growth alone will eat most of this up by year's end. Just China. If the USA, Japan, India and (one can dream!) Europe economies grow, we tip into undersupply quickly.