What is worthless?, page-172

id agree with that.

we;ve had what 3 step shifts down in oil. usually it maxes at 4 in the most extreme normalisations for commodities - so that means you are only 1 standard deviation away from the bottom if there is a 4th leg down.

Unless that crystallises a debt/bankruptcy or other issue for the stock - you are on the right side of the risk/return bias

ie Its more likely to go to $8.50 than $6

i think there's a final leg down though as oil inventories continue to build despite traders rushing in to buy and stockpile.

could take a month before those numbers come through

right now there will be an 'optimism' bias among most people looking at this space.

takes a while to drown the hope kitty