Hi JCoure
I think by Delta you mean sales growth? and the 119% refers the Dec-13 sales growth on prior corresponding period? Assuming I've understood you correctly, keep in mind that Jun-14 half NAN managed only 12.72% sales growth, for an FY14 average of 44.25%. Also, it's much easier for a business to achieve 40% sales growth coming off a small base, but as the business gets larger and larger it gets harder to achieve those same rates. Hence, the danger in extrapolating historical growth rates into the future.
That being said, I do think that NAN will achieve >20% sales growth over the next few years. As I mentioned previously, I incorporated a 20% sales growth rate into my 'bear case' scenario, which if it were to occur, I estimated I'd lose 9% p.a based on a 78c purchase price over the next few years. Obviously to invest, I think NAN will exceed those forecasts and I'll stand to make a tidy gain. My post was in response to your post "NAN can't lose unless the result has no growth" and my intention was to illustrate that NAN can indeed 'lose' even if it grows sales.
I agree with your point regarding exchange rates. A growing business is likely to experience a higher portion of their sales later in the period, and the dollar did face an accelerating decline during the Dec half. The point being based on averages there would be a FX translation benefit. For completeness, the monthly exchange rates I used were:
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 1 2 3 4 Dec-14 Dec-13 5 Dec 85.89 93.23 6 Nov 89.85 96.37 7 Oct 91.06 98.16 8 Sep 94.05 95.96 9 Aug 96.38 93.43 10 Jul 97.25 94.84 11 Average 92.41 95.33 12 Movement 3.16%
Regards
Gralynchett
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- NAN
- Support Levels
Support Levels, page-18
-
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 1 more message in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add NAN (ASX) to my watchlist
|
|||||
Last
$2.83 |
Change
0.030(1.07%) |
Mkt cap ! $857.4M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$2.87 | $2.87 | $2.82 | $3.640M | 1.284M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
4 | 21844 | $2.81 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$2.85 | 3896 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
4 | 21844 | 2.810 |
4 | 8337 | 2.800 |
3 | 7250 | 2.790 |
6 | 18965 | 2.780 |
2 | 1600 | 2.770 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
2.850 | 3896 | 1 |
2.860 | 15133 | 3 |
2.870 | 5146 | 2 |
2.880 | 4588 | 2 |
2.890 | 1955 | 2 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 16/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
NAN (ASX) Chart |