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Ann: December 2014 Activities Report, App5B and Tenement Info, page-27

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    And you are the credibility king Tobyjack?

    FYI below. You really should do your research. BOLTU in 2015.

    Goldman gets bearish on wider commodities market

    5 days ago
    Having cut its price forecasts for base, bulk commodities, Goldman Sachs has now turned its attention to the sector as a whole.
    In its latest asset allocation report, the US investment bank has downgraded the sector to "underweight", predicting losses of 10 per cent over the next three months, reports Neil Hume, commodities editor.
    (In contrast equities are expected to return 0.4 per cent over the same timeframe).
    Goldman says low oil prices are driving deflation across the industry, while lower growth in China is likely to weigh on commodities such as copper.
    On top of that investor returns are likely to suffer because most commodities are in contango – market jargon for when prices for future delivery exceed current levels.
    This means investors incur costs each time they extend their positions from an expiring contract. Goldman argues:
    Despite the large declines in commodity prices, we see risks as still skewed to the downside over the near term.
    The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which recorded a 17 per cent decline last year, has fallen a further 5 per cent in 2015 mainly because of oil price weakness but declines in copper haven't helped.
    However, over a 12-month horizon Goldman has a more positive view on commodities.
    It reckons there will be an opportunity to turn bullish on the sector, as the oil market slowly rebalances.
    "We expect US oil price close to $40 a barrel [for the six months to June], which should slow supply growth and balance the global oil market by 2016," Goldman said in the report."
    However, we expect oil prices to recover to the marginal cost of production ($65 for WTI, $70 for Brent) by the end of the year, which implies strong return potential."
 
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