No Mystery Here, page-3

That totally misrepresents what was actually reported in the last quarterly.
The statement was they didn't expect December's positive cash flow "into the March quarter". Not that the quarter wouldn't be cash flow positive.
(My bold.)
Why? 3 reasons given:
- Using Ph1 product to seed the Ph2 solvent extraction units. By my estimates that's over $20m worth of product from Dec & Jan quarters.
- Temporary problem continues for a week into Jan.
- Poor Market Conditions (some recovery happening in Nd/Pr which is 70% of sales by value).

So what happens when Ph2 is up and running? First I think we can assume most SX issues have been solved in Ph1; sure took them long enough!
The positive Dec cash flow shows that the Lynas guidance of $19/kg for Ph1 COP is about right. We know cost of production will be substantially lower with Ph 1+2 is $14-15/kg which seems very realistic.
We know there are buyers for at least the high value product; they weren't going to fire up Ph2 until it would make money.