nsw election update, page-5

re: nsw election update - 9.00pm. With 63.6% of the vote counted (ie: 2,480,718 votes) up to 08:48 pm, the chamber allocation is fast turning out to be a status quo result.

Labor's swing is +1.6%, vs a net swing to the coalition of +0.1%.

Labor is currently tracking 43.9% of the vote on primaries, vs the Coalition's 34.8%.

The Greens are tracking 8.1% (up 4.2% on 1999) are appear to now be stabilising at that mark.

The Democrats are currently tracking 0.9% and now appear very unlikely to capture even 1.0% of the Lower House primary vote. Combined together, however, the "alternates" (ie: the Greens and Democrats) are tracking 9.0% (up 1.8% on their combined 1999 result of 7.2%).

One Nation has all but disappeared, tracking 1.2% which is down 6.3% on 1999's 7.5% result.

Continuing to be the surprise factor is the growing resurgence of Independents throughout the Australian politicla landscape, with Independents now tracking 12.1% of the primary vote, vs 9.3% in 1999 - making for +2.8% E-on-E).

Among the Parties, the 8.48% results show the following:
Labor Party = 54 0 54 1 +0
Liberal Party = 17 0 17 3 +0
National Party = 12 0 12 0 -1
Greens = 0 0 0 0 +0
Australian Democrats = 0 0 0 0 +0
One Nation = 0 0 0 0 +0
Others = 6 0 6 0 +1

In the Upper House, counting is (as per usual) much slower than for the Lower House, but @9.07pm, and with 327,000 votes counted ("above the line"), One Nation is tracking 4,700 votes (ie: 1.4% of the vote), vs Labor on 145,000 votes (ie: 44.3%), the Coalition on 108,000 (ie: 33%), the Greens on 29,000 votes (ie: 8.9% vs 9.3% of the vote 10 minutes ago, when 271,000 votes had been counted), and the Australian Democrats on 5,092 votes (ie: 1.6%).

Both the Democrats and One Nation will struggle to take anything positive away with them as a result of this election, whereas the Greens continue to each into the Democrats former heartland, and further evidence of a return to the 2-party preferred primary party grouping (ie: tonight, 78.7% vs 77% in 1999).