Even if every single known zinc tenement makes it to production on time to supply the currently anticipated deficit in supply, there will be a gap of at least 6 months between supply meeting demand. Thats the basis of the fundamentals that make zinc bullish.
Variables are 1) world growth may stall and reduce the need for zinc = unforeseen trouble. 2) IBG fails to get to production = holders stuffed. 3) Geopolitical drama like Russia nuking Greenland etc = holders stuffed. 4) China having zinc reserves no one knows about and satisfying their own demand quickly = smaller or no price spike.
New zinc mines take about 18 months to get to production. Mothballed mines take 6 months to reach production again. Apparently at Citronen you can dig the zinc up with a shovel, shallow tenement.
But if things go the bullish path and supply isn't met....well... up she goes for a little 6 - 18 month price hike.
LME inventories fall 100,000 tonnes since Jan 1st, page-14
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