Note to self: ignore Bell Potter in future. It has been good to see some of the "bulls" acknowledge the issues facing this company - the "short bashing" behaviour has been pretty unfair and nasty in some cases. Next month could be difficult. Chinese New Year shutdown now:
- Steel mills have bought up in anticipation which saw a bit of strength in IO price
- IO production will continue to be produced in Aus etc and will head to China where it won't be used due to the shutdown period. Inventories will rise.
So after shutdown:
- Steel mills already bought IO in anticipation of upswing in Steel demand after New Year. If it doesn't happen??
- Inventories replenished (one week shutdown)
- Getting towards end of winter, meaning Chinese IO production will start to come back online, putting downward pressure on prices.
Ann: FY15 Half Year Results Presentation, page-182
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