Mongomery discusses SRX valuation, page-11

Again, no offence taken, but you will agree that the current SP is including a premium for a x% probability of successful trial.

One of my biotech disasters was Pharmaxis (PXS) which although not of the scale of SRX, was not a tiddler and had two viable products, Bronchitol and Aridol. That stock went from $1.25 to 68c overnight, and then endured other issues taking it down to the current price of 9.1c. It still has those two products which still make (some) money. I am not comparing in any way PXS and SRX, so please don't comment on PXS! If I recall also, there were issues with PXS with getting their products on to our equivalent of the PBS in each jurisdiction, which also cost $Ms with patchy success.

My point to one of the earlier posters was that you can't take anything for granted, and that the outcome is binary - i.e. when the trial results are released the SP won't be in the $30s, it will (most likely) be in the $10s or $40s+. So more than is usual in the stock market, at this point investors (including Roger Montgomery) are making a "bet" rather than an "investment" unless they know a lot more about the trial outcome than I do. It may be a good value bet, but in my mind it is still a bet.

Having said all of that, I have faith in this company and the product, and am a current shareholder and intend to hold.