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Following positive leads the SPI is pointing to a stronger start for the Australian share market ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monthly rate decision. The local bourse has been edging closer to the 6,000 mark after the RBA moved its official cash rate to a new record low of 2.25 per cent last month.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s (ASX:CBA) broking arm Commsec says financial markets believe it is a 50:50 call whether rates will be cut again today. Following a series of economic news releases yesterday Commsec believes the RBA has a very difficult decision and its understandable why financial markets and economists are split.
Global markets
Wall Street advanced into the new week: The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.9 per cent to close at 18,289, the S&P 500 gained 0.6 per cent to close at 2,117 and the Nasdaq gained 0.9 per cent to close at 5,008.
European markets ended mixed on Monday: London's FTSE 100 slipped 0.1 per cent, France's CAC 40 dipped 0.7 per cent and Germany's DAX firmed 0.1 per cent.
Asian markets moved higher on Monday: Japan’s Nikkei added 0.2 per cent, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.3 per cent, and China’s Shanghai Composite jumped 0.8 per cent.
The Australian share market rose to a seven-year high yesterday following China’s rate cut over the weekend: The S&P/ASX 200 index advanced 30 points to close at 5,959. On the futures market the SPI is 14 points higher.
Currencies
The Australian dollar at 8:30am was buying $US0.7767, 50.56 Pence Sterling, 93.32 Yen and 69.49 Euro cents.
Economic news due out today
Reserve Bank of Australia: March board meeting and interest rate decision
Australian Bureau of Statistics: Building Approvals data for January
Australian Bureau of Statistics: Government finance statistics figures and balance of payments and international investment position, both for the December quarter.
ANZ Banking Group (ASX:ANZ)-Roy Morgan: Weekly consumer confidence survey
Dun and Bradstreet: Business expectations survey
RBA rate call expectations
AMP Limited’s (ASX:AMP) AMP Capital Investors Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, Dr Shane Oliver believes the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut rates by another 0.25 per cent today. Mr Oliver says while it is another close call the weakness in the business investment outlook has only added to the urgency to cut interest rates again. Mr Oliver believes the cut will be made to ensure maximum impact from last month’s rate cut through boosting confidence and spending growth and maintaining downwards pressure on the Aussie dollar. Shares in AMP fell 0.75 per cent to close at $6.65 on Monday.
National Australia Bank Limited (ASX:NAB) has predicted the Reserve Bank of Australia will make no change in rates today. The bank says it doesn’t believe rates will move due to the short period of time from last board meeting, momentum in the housing market and a moderate, rather than a large, deterioration in the Australian outlook. NAB has affirmed it still expects the RBA’s next move to be in May. Shares in National Australia Bank rose 1.11 per cent to close at $38.32 on Monday.
Commodities
Gold has dropped $4.90 to $US1,208 an ounce for the April contract on Comex.
Silver has slipped $0.10 to $16.45 for May.
Copper has risen $0.22 to $2.70 a pound.
Oil has eased $0.17 to $US49.59 a barrel for April light crude in New York.
Ex-dividends
Amalgamated Holdings Limited (ASX:AHD) paying a 16 cent fully franked dividend
AMP Limited (ASX:AMP) paying a 13.5 cent, 80 per cent franked dividend
Australian Governance Masters Index Fund Limited (ASX:AQF) paying a 3 cent fully franked dividend
Alumina Limited (ASX:AWC) paying a 2.0289 cent fully franked dividend
Arowana International Limited (ASX:AWN) paying a 2 cent, 4 per cent franked dividend
Beacon Lighting Group Limited (ASX:BLX) paying a 1.8 cent fully franked dividend
BlueScope Steel Limited (ASX:BSL) paying a 3 cent fully franked dividend
Collection House Limited (ASX:CLH) paying a 4.4 cent fully franked dividend
Centuria Capital Limited (ASX:CNI) paying a 2 cent fully franked dividend
Cochlear Limited (ASX:COH) paying a 90 cent, 35 per cent franked dividend
Corporate Travel Management Limited (ASX:CTD) paying a 6 cent fully franked dividend
Greencross Limited (ASX:GXL) paying an 8 cent fully franked dividend
Infomedia Limited (ASX:IFM) paying a 1.94 cent unfranked dividend
IPH Limited (ASX:IPH) paying a 3.5 cent, 71.42 per cent franked dividend
Lifehealthcare Group Limited (ASX:LHC) paying a 7.5 cent, 76 per cent franked dividend
Nick Scali Limited (ASX:NCK) paying a 7 cent fully franked dividend
Perpetual Limited (ASX:PPT) paying a 115 cent fully franked dividend
REA Group Limited (ASX:REA) paying a 29.5 cent fully franked dividend
Select Harvests Limited (ASX:SHV) paying a 15 cent unfranked dividend
Servcorp Limited (ASX:SRV) paying a 11 cent, 20 per cent franked dividend
Treasury Group Limited (ASX:TRG) paying a 24 cent fully franked dividend
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