1. Kenmare is a competitor so we want them to go down. Foolish decisions by the executive team will led to its demise. Iluka the target competitor will surely pick them up.
You don't want the gorilla to get any bigger. They could do what Rio and BHP are doing to iron ore pricing if they got Moma. No other project, how good it was would get up (if they got everything right with that plant).
2. Chinese construction industry is wobbly, yes, but only for now. The TiO2 price will breach those levels, easily in the next two years with heavy demand from Asia and the U.S.
Based on what data? Supply is currently increasing, demand is decreasing. (Ilmenite is under $100t - hasnt been that for 10-15+ years)
3. World pricing of TiO2, Zircon, Rutile are on historical lows and questions are being asked whether this will turn this year. There are two options, 1) the product no longer becomes viable and is discontinued, or the commodity value increases dramatically - given historical trends, the value will increase to new highs as we enter the 2020's with new technologies and population growth and requirements for building material.
Historical trends are running at 3-4% growth for Ilmenite (2014 was negative). We've just had a boom where the price went through the roof for most sands, now we are having the bust. While I do think the future is bright, it's still a long way off.
You have mentioned new technologies which is a good point, another that could be added is the use of 3D titanium printing (which I have spoken extensively about on MZI - Rio and Iluka have poured tens of millions into an english company called Metalysis - worth reading about their technology). But again still a way off.
4. There are many new sand mines coming online in 2015 including projects like Grand Cote - Yes, that is the global market we live in
Exactly my point, supply is coming online. You've got examples like Base Resources Kwale project now hitting its straps and pumping out 450,000t annually of sulphate ilmenite which is sent straight to China via their offtake. (China only import 2 million tonnes of it).
It clearly shows me that the market dynamics are firmly one way.
...the customer.
Pep
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