Iron Ore Price, page-700

http://www.fmgl.com.au/UserDir/AsxA...lf Year Results Corporate Presentation814.pdf

Based on there corporate presentation on page 9, the outlook for the first half of 2015 is a cost of US$45/ dry metric tonne.
Now thats price includes sustaining CAPEX and interest payments. This cost is very likely outlook as oil prices are still very depressed atm with brent around $54 dollars a barrel  (so deliver cost may even surprise us on the upside).
Now current Ore price is about $58.9. Giving a 20% discount due to low grade ore FMG has, they should be selling around   $47.12. Giving them a slim margin of $2 equating to about a NPBT of around US $300 millions if annualized production is at 150-155 Mega tonnes/pa.
NPAT in $AUD = $280m

PS. we havnt factored in currency which is in favor of FMG as aus dollar is still falling = lower cost in terms of US dollars.

FMG highly leveraged play. but FMG seems cheap as soon as the IO price exceeds $62.5

So breakeven price is $56.3. at this point very dangerous.