Just had a detIled look at the half year results. This all just my thoughts so do your own research.
- Strong profits in Australia and Europe. Australia looks to be driven by FXD, Globe and Stussy. I posted some years ago that I thought that FXD had global potential and now they have made that same comment in the pres. Europe is a stand out with a big profit boost mostly from Globe and now they have Sweet SKbds in Europe. Sell thru looks good with nearly all channels restocking and taking a bigger range.
- They US business made a loss but a lot of this looks to be due to getting exclusive global distribution for Fallen and Zero. Fallen is now stocked in many channels in Europe and the US and from what I can tell it looks like all the costs and revenue will be counted by Dwindle in the USA . So expect a strong turnaround in the USA in the second half.
- Not much mention of Asia.
- Looks like they have dumped Chapter and Neff. Also not mcuh mention of Boy London but it is being sold thru David Jones and Culture Kings.
- The U.S. channels look to be growing nicely with a bigger range and restocking in Nordstrom, Urban Outfitters, Zappos and Pac Sun. These all have strong growth potential.
- Balance sheet looks strong and the 3 cent div is only $1.2 mil. I think they will easily do a 5 cent div at year end which will only be $2.0 from their cash balance.
Their current shre price is only 6 times their likely EBITDA for 2015. Other growth stocks like Surfstich are selling at over 25 times so I think that GLB still has a long way to run. Now that I have loaded up again I can say that think that we will see the SP grow strongly over the next 12 months. GLB now has a market cap of only $40 mil. With rev in 2015 expected to be over $140 mil ( and growing at 20%). Also paying nice dividends.
On the negative side I think that the week A$ will hit heir margins in Aust and maybe Europe as the € weekens but these will wash through over the next 12 months. Also, I think their growth will slow slightly as it is unlikely they can keep growing at over 20%. But they will still keep growing in double digits.
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