Hi Thadius - your numbers made me look into the financials in a bit more detail. They are fairly vague in general with very little information as to projected forward spend (salaries, leases etc). Here is my take on what things may look like based on a quick glance of the numbers:
As of December 2014
Cash 427K
Rebate 1,901K
Barge 2,160K (they state that they might be able to sell at the cost value of $3,6M but that might not be the case Have taken 60% of this to calculate a potential lower sale price. Will only know when it happens.
Short term cash / assets - 4,488K
Trade payables 1,250K (no detail given)
Loan 800K (was due in March 2015 so perhaps rolled over. Secured against the rebate.
Other 500K (spend Jan - May). They were burning $200k / month previously. Have cut this to 100/m for this estimate). There will also be some major merger costs presumably
Total 2,550K (leaving a net current assets /cash position of 1,938K).
Then consider the following commitments that the combined entity will have over the next 12 months (as per their financial statements) / not to mention the commitments post the 12 months.
IFE:
377K - tenement expenditure commitments
508K - Capital commitments - no detail provided as to exactly what this is
TRF:
1,596K - tenement expenditure commitments
200K - Other commitments - no details given.
Unless IFE can somehow extract themselves from these commitments (apply for extensions at the DMP, farm out leases, relinquish leases etc) then all available cash will simply be eaten up in no time (not even considering other day to day costs, salaries etc).
TRF obviously along with the liabilities brings the 12M or so OGX shares to the deal (worth $927K at todays 7.5c price). Thadius - based on your statement that the value of these could run to $4 - 6$M later in the year (in other words north of a 400 - 600% increase) why not buy these shares directly instead of holding them via IFE if you expect such spectacular returns. If OGX performs you will be reliant on the IFE directors passing this benefit on to you. I am pretty sure they will be thinking of their own survival before worrying about their shareholders.
Only my opinion - as many other say - DYOR
TYX Price at posting:
1.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)