Success in Phase 1 Alzheimer's trial adds $40 bn, page-4

If nothing else, the Biogen story shows that the market loves therapies with successful trials in neurological conditions where there is a large market with unmet need.

Alzheimer’s is perhaps the most obvious condition in this category as it taps into the aging Baby Boomer market. There are estimated to be more than 5 million Americans with Alzheimer’s, with the annual incidence in the US estimated to be approximately 470,000.

But there are also other neurological conditions with large markets of unmet need.

Traumatic brain injury is one. In the United States the estimated annual incidence of TBI (a condition with no current treatment) is 1.7 million. Neuren’s Phase 2 results of NNZ-2566 in both mild and moderate to severe TBI should be known by later this year. With Neuren’s current shareprice at .10, the market doesn’t seem to be anticipating trial success. But what if the trials do demonstrate efficacy? What if the drug demonstrates not only efficacy, but also a better safety profile than Biogen’s drug?

It’s also worth remembering Neuren’s second drug, NNZ-2591, which is currently being prepared for IND submission. It has already demonstrated efficacy in pre-clinical models of stroke. The estimated annual incidence of stroke in the US is 800,000 – higher than Alzheimer’s. Finally, it shouldn't be forgotten that the patent for NNZ-2591, issued last year with respect to “improvement of cognitive performance in impaired animals”, also makes claim for treatment of Alzheimer’s Disease, Dementia, Parkinson’s Disease and age-related memory loss (along with other conditions).