Agreed Jigg... the AUD weakness will help, my post was just to highlight currency benefits are not as material if costs are also in USD. It's worth noting also that 48% of revenues comes from US. There's 17% in GBP however the AUD has not depreciated as significantly.
An example might highlight it better:
The below just assumes US revenues are in line with EBITDA margins for HSN (25-30%). When the AUD goes from $0.95 to $0.80 vs the USD, the incremental benefit to EBITDA is around $2.3m (or around 8% of forecast EBITDA). If the costs were all in AUD, the incremental benefit to EBITDA would be $8.5m. 8% is of course a benefit, but not the sole reason you would make an investment decision.
Column 1
Column 2
0
At $0.95
All figures are in AUD
1
Forecast HSN Revenue
$95,000,000
2
US Exposure
48%
3
US Revenues
$45,600,000
4
EBITDA Margin
27.50%
5
US Costs
$33,060,000
6
Implied EBITDA in AUD
$12,540,000
7
At $0.80
8
US Revenues
$54,150,000
9
US Costs
$39,258,750
10
Implied EBITDA in AUD
$14,891,250
11
Uplift in EBITDA due to AUD weakness
$2,351,250
12
As a proportion of FY15 EBITDA (assuming $30m)
7.83750%
Column 1
Column 2
0
EBITDA on USD revenues if costs were in AUD only
$21,090,000
1
Uplift in EBITDA due to AUD weakness
$8,550,000
HSN Price at posting:
$2.46 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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