Some light in tunnel....No not the train!!!!!, page-36

For Chrys & Buc in particular but a general statement

Let's call a spade a spade shall we. I have nothing against SSN, you guys (?) personally or any other poster. I have an opinion just as you do and I base my opinion on firstly SSN specific data, then regional data, peer data and E&P experience. I don't know or care how you form your opinion (although it would help if facts were supplied for the basis of argument). We have differing opinions and that's OK. Neither is "better" than the other

What I find disingenuous is the posting of "half truths" - like I said and credited Buc with what he wrote was completely true but not truly complete. How a poster could imply that SSN has a $50M credit facility (while a true statement) but not note that it is limited to a Borrowing Base of $19M and which is secured by 1P Reserves valued at $54.4M calculated using Benchmark pricing of $100/Bbl from the Jun30 Reserves report would be a material oversight IMO. To then retort that "The credit facility was increased in November, with oil price around $70 and crashing" is again superficial - the updated facility was effective Nov 24 (and clearly the increase was determined before that date) and the oil price was $75.74 - and the crash started with OPEC not cutting and that day was Thanksgiving day which I'm sure you know was the last Thursday in November (Thu 27th). I'm sure he also knew that in early Nov HH of CLR announced they cashed in all their hedges, a bold bet that prices will recover soon after sliding some 25 percent with Hamm calling OPEC a "toothless tiger".

This more complete view is of course an "inconvenient truth" for Buc's CNN Headline News style cheap service but hey we just reporting the news not making it right.

The illusion, the smoke and mirrors is as transparent as glass. Buc thinks I don't take a genuine interest and make it up - the pic could just as easily be me as Pinocchio and Buc as Jiminy scolding me for being disingenuous.

Speaking of transparency, what SSN does better most of the ASX small caps is provide good reporting (if would be great reporting if they went the extra mile and spelled out Cash Margin and a reconciled EBITDAX number). However they give clean financials and spell out production even letting its shareholders know the monthly progress. If SSN did not do that it would be very difficult to measure its progress to the level of granularity that myself and Rob79 share here.

I don't for a single minute think that MOB is panicking about SSN's Borrowing Base. They have the upper hand. They don't want is to be an oil company. They also don't want non-performing impaired loans that State banking regulators would flag as requiring capital reserves. Just as in GFC times when price of oil crashed the banks will first choose to renegotiate (back then though the financial system was weak though). Most popular method "Pretend and Extend" which was simply extend the borrowing base redetermination date and maturity date in hopes prices rebound before the loan matures or the borrowing base is re-determined. That also has been well documented. Next most likely tactic was "Slice and Dice" to restructure borrowing base loans into conforming and non-conforming “stretch” tranches. This allows the bank to keep its portion of the loan "performing" and keep the regulators happy (the stretch lenders will expect to be paid for the higher risk). Both these tactics already employed. Maybe the cheap service missed those bulletins.

I must have missed Buc's managerial perspective argumentation as all I saw was "TB is deliberately holding back oil flow, plus a further 6 new wells can be brought back to production with no fuss, if need be. That tells me, TB nor the bankers are panick mode, imo." That seems more like just an opinion without substantiating facts. SSN is the junior partner and in my experience it is the Operator that makes the overall decisions/timing (in consultation with its partners). My opinion on that basis is Slawson saying that the capital invested would not make an adequate IRR or payback (within the RoT of 18 - 30 mths) if produced at current prices. From what I read in SSN presentations TB agrees by looking for projects that work at $50 oil.

How am I doing so far - not even doing any spreadsheet numbers.

I'm not going to get into a prediction war with you Chrys with "I was right and you was wrong" - although from what I've seen on Yahoo your SP forecast crystal ball must be opaque. I hope you do makes lots of money on SSN going up - I really do - as I have no interest in SSN going down and I hate to see people lose money unnecessarily. But for sure I will not be a "tout" for a stock and pump it up.

You see part of making money is not losing money and part of not losing money is being able to identity and quantify the risks. I see SSN's biggest risks as:
#1 - Borrowing Base redetermination.
#2 - Profitable and reasonable (IRR 25%+) production growth, so not just growth at any price
#3 - Cost Structure
#4 - Access to Capital

#1 is Flashing Red to me. If SSN gets through that (and it meant to be completed by end Apr) without any reductions to BB or its covenants and terms the I think SSN becomes a ST TRADING BUY - meaning I would think about initiating a position short term. If that were co-incidental with a recovery in the price of oil that would also be good news.

Note my sentiment is None. I've not said Buy it, Sell it or continue to Hold it. It's none because I don't hold.

Now to best of my reading here, the most supportive posters have all got "Buy" ratings haven't they and that hasn't ever changed. I'm wondering if there has been any "profit taking" (as in oh I only just bought some more as a trading parcel on a dip and sold it into the rally ... a few times now ... but I still have my long term parcel which I continue to hold and "top up"). Because if that that sentiment was true then you'd think SSN liquidity would be tight as shares get soaked up into long term holds.

Just asking.

Oh and if we are talking about aggressive posting you're in the wrong place. I believe that is found in a different place on the planet.

Now I wonder what on earth did Acreage post that earned moderation and 3TU's. With all those "C'mons" in his previous post I thought I was reading an article on Lleyton Hewitt latest match (or he was having a dig).