smac, the other mak actually wrote "Definitely a potential precursor to administration". The adverb 'definitely' coupled with 'potential' and 'precursor' muddied the waters I feel. If meaning potential going into administration that is what should have been written. And yes of course there is the potential, nothing new in that observation.
However, I read mak's comment to suggest he believes this is the precursor to administration due to emphasis placed with use of 'definitely'. In which case I feel riskreward was correct to question it. So, what is out there?
* likely to require an additional capital raising - we all know that and at this stage of the game I think most of us would gladly wear it.
* Not aware of any other information necessary to inform the market.
* Newsat has received conditional proposals to invest or underwrite up to $60 million in quity and is considering these proposals with the lenders
My interpretation is funds are there, it just comes down to the source and structure of funds being acceptable to the lenders. At this stage of proceedings I give it a probability of 75% in favour of an outcome that enables the project to continue. I base that on negotiations have been ongoing for months; I cannot envisage a situation where negotiations would be drawn out to this length of time unless there was goodwill to find a solution between all parties.
Inevitably, additional equity will set us back on the road to SP recovery. However, the market is forward looking so after the initial 'market tantrum' on dilution then the next good news story should see it reverse upwards. Forward good news is most likely to be in the form of project update reports leading to launch.
The unknown factor is the extent of political pressure there is from within at Exim and Coface. That is where I see the 25% risk of failure, not the raising of sufficient equity. If it came to lender withdrawal it may not mean the final nail is in the coffin but I'll leave that for another day.
As it stands I'm 75% confident.
NWT Price at posting:
11.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
