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Xjo cfd Market looking toppy., page-7

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thorburn

10,404 Posts.

01/04/15

07:43

Post #: 15016347
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Originally posted by bendigo ↑

Hi keygeo and albright
It really is a bit of a guessing game
I lost small amounts shorting on a few occasions recently and then got it back on a couple of days when it did fall.
Net net net I came out about square.
Keeps me amused and off the streets.

While I do follow the charts almost 100 % for trading the xjo I am always mindful that they represent HISTORIC prices.
And all the indicators, whether momentum leading or trend following lagging, are also just mathematical representations/manipulations of these same past prices.........and they don't always work !

I still think that fundamentally the oz market is in toppy territory given our economic circumstances/ commodity prices and the risk of a real estate bubble.

The xjo has had a good rise in recent times and when I started this thread I thought,
given the fundamentals.....it was time for a pause/ pullback.
So far I'm neither right nor wrong.
And as I said......a bit of a guessing game.
Certainly not a time to be taking large positions either way.

Can sometimes fade the CFD's before the oz market opens ......if overnight they are far away from the previous xjo close ....and be out before 11 am. But not possible most days as the setup is not there....and when / if you do,
position size relative to account funding is VERY important because even the obvious is not guaranteed and the trade can go pear shaped..so don't be greedy/ over ambitious
(It's a weakness of mine)

This being a short trading week and then with next Monday also being a holiday, its all way too risky to be doing anything much, parfticularly with leveraged products like cfd's

Picture may become clearer after Easter.

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Yes, it certainly will. The RBA meet Tuesday pm and will likely cut rates again. This seems the only thing supporting markets. Imagine bank shares at <2% yield?
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