Still pushing W Africa IO projects isolated by infrastructure? Yes I had know about the LARGE deposits around your area of interest BUT the issue remain ore haulage. The warning signs when African Mineral and now Glencore pulled out of their projects has confirmation of the high risk nature when you come in late in the cycle. At the current IOP you best FORGET W AFRICA until we see price elevation and sustained. High reward bet on a horse with no pedigree at Melbourne cup.
I think you will find that under such commodity attack on the price, the lower risk play if one still wants to indulge in these sectors is to look for a multi asset miner exposed to a multi commodity sector with broadly equal weightings. I will not argue with your knowledge of area C or surrounding mines as I do not worry about looking closely at BHP's fundamentals beside the general BS/P&L and chart, but it is surprising that during the boom it only made 1 attempt at a takeover and that was on small speckie UMC of which I held a fairly large position. I think you were also exposed to this share?
How many IO mines has BHP got in their portfolio besides Area c? Don't ask me coz I have no idea.
Roy Hill figures have been published, at the selling price at present they are losing money if producing and selling, Fact. Theirs is not High Grade. Their start off spend on Mine, Rail and Port is Huge.
Rather bold statement to make considering they have not not shipped first ore yet and some are saying Sept date line may be questionable. I would be surprised you have the ability to peek inside the financial details of a private Co owned by Gina Reinhart and to publicly makes this kind of statements. I give you big cahunas! She is not someone to mess around with unless you have a a good legal team. BUT since it remains a private co, I will take your word that Roy Hill has sheet grades and already underwater on first shipment coz you have done your 'research'.
I think you have made your point with your big bet on W Africa deposits against a back drop of big players exiting their current project.
If I were a hedge trader, I would go long BHP or RIO and short FMG and play the spread between the 2 camps. If I were a smart investor I would wait for the IOP to settle down then start looking for a better entry on bhp/rio. If I were a gambler I would go all in FMG ant any of these beaten down level. It is a mater of being able to sleep better at night.
FMG Price at posting:
$1.82 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
(20min delay)