RMS 1.38% $2.20 ramelius resources limited

Buyers Building, page-18

  1. 2,997 Posts.
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    Sharetr, the bid is 4.5c for the oppies, and the ask is 4.9c. I used the ask of 4.9c. That's makes up for most of the 13%. Also there are hardly any on offer at even 4.9, so because of the lack of liquidity in the oppies, that makes it even harder to make the profit you stated in the ops, but probable with the heads. Of course, this lack of liquidity would become problematic if the SP of the heads fall for any reason.

    The Black Scholes, which is generally used, as a guess, even using 15c heads, (when I first wrote) 30% volaility, 8% interest, (generous) would give a price, I'd expect of about 3.5c. Bugger it, I do the calcs; 3.3349c. At 15.5c would equal 3.84c.

    Now that's the % play. In the long term you'd be better off playing the % than outright gambling against them.

    Having said all that I'd expect RMS to be above 18c by Aug 1, IF ALL GOES TO PLAN. We have this qtr and next qtr report, we have probably a couple of mines starting up, we have increase in grades and thus AISC falling below $1000, and possibly a rise in POG. A SP over 20c is a real possibilty. But the big players play the odds, hence the directors switching.

    Furthermore, company options are not like ETOs, where there is a winner and a loser, usually with plenty of money backing. Here, even 500k options, as you say will require $60,000 to convert. Thus many will leave before mid July when the options will stop trading.

    These are the facts, not downramping. Just know all the facts before you buy, is what I'm trying to get across. Don't get caught in the hype.
    Last edited by kgtom: 16/04/15
 
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