Whats the market pricing in?

fy2015 ev/ebitda of 5.9 vs average of 10
fair value equal to todays closing price assumes average eps of 15c with 0% growth over 10 years (10% discount rate)
analyst eps estimates sit between 11 and 13 for 2015/2016/2017 vs myers long term average of 16.5c
these estimates suggest that the current share price might still be overvalued

yet analysts are also forecasting a small increase in sales growth each year and a sizeable decline in net margin
if earnings continue to miss targets then less cash will be available for shareholders
dividend would be reduced but they could still manage a reasonable 4% yield worst case (if you bought today)
if share price fell then this would only increase

but lets assume the absolute worst and play around with liquidation value..
to get a 5 year liquidation value of $1.32 you would have to write off 75% asset value (assuming constant rate of decline from the peak of the business cycle)

if shorts manage to push the price down through $1.30 support then the case for a myer long starts to build
factor in the possibility for a takeover and you could have one of the few viable contrarian plays

unfortunately i have a meeting in 5 minutes and have to rush my finish - gl to anyone jumping in early