fy2015 ev/ebitda of 5.9 vs average of 10
fair value equal to todays closing price assumes average eps of 15c with 0% growth over 10 years (10% discount rate)
analyst eps estimates sit between 11 and 13 for 2015/2016/2017 vs myers long term average of 16.5c
these estimates suggest that the current share price might still be overvalued
yet analysts are also forecasting a small increase in sales growth each year and a sizeable decline in net margin
if earnings continue to miss targets then less cash will be available for shareholders
dividend would be reduced but they could still manage a reasonable 4% yield worst case (if you bought today)
if share price fell then this would only increase
but lets assume the absolute worst and play around with liquidation value..
to get a 5 year liquidation value of $1.32 you would have to write off 75% asset value (assuming constant rate of decline from the peak of the business cycle)
if shorts manage to push the price down through $1.30 support then the case for a myer long starts to build
factor in the possibility for a takeover and you could have one of the few viable contrarian plays
unfortunately i have a meeting in 5 minutes and have to rush my finish - gl to anyone jumping in early
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Last
83.5¢ |
Change
-0.005(0.60%) |
Mkt cap ! $694.5M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
84.0¢ | 84.0¢ | 82.5¢ | $685.8K | 822.4K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 6074 | 83.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
84.0¢ | 66144 | 5 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 40000 | 0.820 |
2 | 13869 | 0.810 |
1 | 12250 | 0.805 |
1 | 1250 | 0.800 |
2 | 27800 | 0.795 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.840 | 61044 | 3 |
0.845 | 7417 | 2 |
0.850 | 105355 | 16 |
0.855 | 159547 | 5 |
0.860 | 5392 | 3 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 30/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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